According to preliminary data released by Istat on October 30, 2026, Italy's annual inflation rate rose to 5.4% in October, a significant jump from the 4.2% recorded in September. This figure represents the highest level of inflation observed since August 2023 and exceeds the market consensus, which had predicted an increase to 4.7%. The monthly inflation rate for the period stands at 0.9%, with the final official data scheduled for release on November 17.
The acceleration in price levels is largely attributed to surging costs in the energy sector, which rose from 22.6% to 31.4% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing international geopolitical tensions. Within this category, regulated energy prices saw a dramatic spike, with protected market electricity jumping from 9.7% to 60.2% and natural gas increasing from 47.0% to 56.8%. Unregulated energy costs also climbed, particularly for heating diesel, which reached 45.6%, and transport diesel, which hit 37.7%. Conversely, gasoline prices showed a slight deceleration in growth, dropping from 21.8% to 19.4%, likely due to price caps implemented by some companies until the end of December.
Beyond energy, inflationary pressures are spreading to other sectors, notably food and transport services. The cost of unprocessed food items increased from 5.5% to 7.5%, driven by higher prices for vegetables, tubers, bananas, legumes, and fruits. Processed food prices showed a slight moderation in their downward trend but still registered a monthly increase. Transport services also contributed to the rise, with costs climbing from 1.6% to 3.1%. Consequently, the "shopping cart" index, which covers food and household goods excluding fuels, accelerated from 1.5% to 2.5%, while the high-frequency purchase index, including fuels, rose from 5.2% to 5.8%.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and fresh food components, increased from 1.6% to 2.0%. Looking at the full year, the acquired inflation rate for 2026 now stands at 3.4%, assuming prices remain stable for the remainder of the year. This figure surpasses the International Monetary Fund's mid-October estimate of 3.3% for the total annual inflation.
Sources: Il Sole 24 Ore Italia.