Prediction markets were already signalling their picks as votes were being counted on election night. Traders on the regulated US exchange Kalshi and the crypto platform Polymarket had wagered on the outcomes of congressional and gubernatorial races. Kalshi’s leading candidate won in 118 of 125 competitive races decided by midday Wednesday, according to figures reviewed by Handelsblatt, giving the platform a hit rate of just over 94%.
The results suggest that the markets generally identified which side would win but underestimated the scale of Democratic victories. The figures reflect the situation at noon Wednesday; 68 races included in the analysis were still unresolved at that point, and the outlet said it would update its tally as results became final.
Handelsblatt counted a market’s favorite as the candidate who had led for most of the trading period. Kalshi’s favorites won 32 of 33 Senate races and 32 of 33 gubernatorial contests. In House races, the favorite prevailed in 49 of 54 markets. The three markets forecasting control of Congress were also correct. The most prominent error among the misses was in Texas.
Sources: Handelsblatt.